Royal LePage® upgrades national year-end home price forecast as market hits ‘critical tipping point’

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 4.3 per cent year over year to $812,100 in the first quarter of 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased 2.9 per cent, an indication that sidelined buyers are rebooting their real estate purchase plans ahead of expected interest rate cuts, as predicted in January.

“Consistent with our previous forecast, the market did reach a critical tipping point in the first quarter of 2024, when home prices bottomed out and began to appreciate again. Clearly, more and more buyers are motivated by the need to get ahead of rising home prices, rather than adopting the strategy of waiting for mortgage rates to fall,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. 

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.5 per cent year over year to $845,300, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.5 per cent year over year to $591,900. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.6 per cent, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.4 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company. 

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 9.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see strong price appreciation through the second and third quarters, and taper off in the final months of the year, as is the seasonal norm.

“Given the strong start to 2024, the cadence of the market for the balance of the year points to a normally busy spring market that will lead into an uncomfortably busy fall. It is clear we are rapidly transitioning away from a buyers’ market and back to an environment where the seller has the upper hand,” noted Soper. 

Learn more:

Market Survey Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-202

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