National home prices close out 2023 above prior year, despite continued slowdown in market activity

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 4.3 per cent year over year to $789,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate1 home price decreased slightly by 1.7 per cent, highlighting that elevated borrowing costs continue to affect market activity, as Canadians adapt to the higher interest rate environment.

 “I believe the narrative suggesting that the housing market will rebound only when the Bank of Canada lowers rates misses the mark,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The recovery will begin when consumers have confidence the home they buy today will not be worth less tomorrow. We see that tipping point occurring in the first quarter, before the highly anticipated easing of the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 4.4 per cent year over year to $816,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 4.0 per cent year over year to $583,900. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.1 per cent, while the median price of a condominium declined modestly by 0.6 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company. 

In December, Royal LePage issued its 2024 Market Survey Forecast, projecting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter in 2023. 

“Similar to what we witnessed last spring, when the Bank of Canada paused rates for the first time in a year causing sales activity and prices to increase almost immediately, the first sign of rate cuts – even if only by 25 basis points – could create a flurry of activity in the real estate market,  releasing pent-up demand. Those who have been holding off listing their homes will follow close behind,” added Soper.

1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

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